Saturday, February 23, 2013

2013 Oscar Predictions

I have all kinds of things I want to blog about, and as sometimes happens in those kinds of situations where I have a ton of stuff to say, I find myself not blogging at all.

It's very frustrating.

I decided that with The Oscars on tomorrow night, and me having seen an inordinate number of the movies involved this year, that I should weigh in. Of course, with only having until tomorrow to make the predictions, here's what I'm going to do... I'm going to get those out of the way, and then once I feel like I have the time I'll talk about things like:

"Why the girl from Beasts of the Southern Wild is the most impressive marionette in history, but decidedly not an actress."

"Why Les Miserables is a hugely impressive movie that had absolutely no chance to make everyone happy."


"How I'd be fine with 7 of the nominees for Best Picture actually winning. Also Hell is frozen over."

Those are for another, simpler time.

Without further ado, my Oscar Predictions along with who I believe should win.

Best Original Screenplay:
Should Win: Django Unchained
Will Win: Django Unchained

Comments - Tarantino is a master on the page. I love his turn of phrase. There will be people who are turned off by the profanity, but.. you know... fuck 'em.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Should Win: Lincoln
Will Win: Lincoln

Comments - I love Tony Kushner, and while some people didn't love how densely written Lincoln was, it takes an expert touch to write period dialogue that also conveys a lot of ideas without getting boring. Kushner nails it.

Visual Effects
Should Win: Life of Pi
Will Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Comments- A lot of folks didn't like The Hobbit, but the effects are great. They're also probably the only thing that doesn't suffer a little from the 48fps. Still... Life of Pi had a ridiculously lush feel, and also featured a CGI tiger that was extremely convincing. Also...a  better movie, by a lot.

Animated Short Film:
Should Win: Paperman
Will Win: Paperman

Comments: It's one of the most romantic shorts I've ever seen, and has a great visual style to boot.

Best Original Song:
Should Win: Skyfall
Will Win: Skyfall

Comments... c'mon.. It's Adele.

Best Score:
Should Win: Life of Pi
Will Win: Lincoln

Comments: It's a toss-up for me between the two, really, but I absolutely loved the Life of Pi music throughout, and John Williams' music from Lincoln is only the 10th or 11th best thing about that movie.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Should Win: I have no idea
Will Win: Amour

Comments... Think about it... The movie is nominated for Best Picture. It's not gonna win that, but doesn't that sort of automatically make it the best Foreign Language movie?

Film Editing:
Should Win: Argo
Will Win: Lincoln

Comments- I wouldn't be surprised if this goes to Zero Dark Thirty, because that movie has much snappier editing, but Argo was so well cut together, I don't think anything else was close this year. Heart-beating. Still... Lincoln's gonna take it, because I'm basically predicting that Lincoln's gonna take a lot of these close calls.

Documentary Feature:
Should Win: I dunno
Will Win: Searching for Sugarman

Comments: I have no idea... i'm a bad Cinema Junkie who didn't see any of these.

Should Win: Steven Spielberg
Will Win:  Steven Spielberg

Comments: Had Tarantino or Affleck been nominated, this might be a different discussion, but since they're not I have to believe Spielberg has this in the bag, and probably should.

Should Win: Django Unchained
Will Win: Lincoln

Comments: Look... this is very close, but I personally prefer the more stylish Django to the more epic/cinematic Lincoln. If Lincoln wins, I won't be bummed, but I'd be more excited about a Django win.

Animated Feature Film
Should Win: Wreck-it Ralph
Will Win: Wreck-it Ralph

Comments: If it was just about the animation itself, I'd be totally down with Paranorman or Frankeweenie, but I just found the story and writing of Wreck-it Ralph to be so well done, that it wins. It's not like it looked shabby, either. It was really beautifully realized. (PS... i loved Brave also, but no chance.)

Supporting Actress
Should Win: Anne Hathaway
Will Win: Anne Hathaway

Comments: Seems like this one is already done, because she's won (and annoyed) at every award show so far. I am a big Amy Adams fan, and I'd love to see her win for something some time, because I think this is now the 3rd nomination for her, but it's not her year. The Master was too bizarre, and Anne Hathaway just crushes too hard.

Supporting Actor
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones

Comments: Man... what a field, huh? All former winners. DeNiro!! I liked all of these performances except maybe Hoffman (I just hated The Master, kinda). Still... the real show was Christoph Waltz playing a truly memorable character. I loved his performance. Tommy Lee Jones was great, too, though and for the bigger winner overall. I'd be shocked if he doesn't win.

Best Actress
Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Comments: I'm fine with any of these women winning except for the kid. That's a whole other blog. Jennifer Lawrence is awesome, and definitely the best part of the movie. I kinda feel like she's got the momentum, and she's as deserving as any of these ladies.Except the kid. She's more deserving than the kid.

Best Actor
Should Win: Daniel Day Lewis
Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis

Comments: This one is tough for me, because I could definitely make a real argument for 2 of the other guys. Joaquin Phoenix was by far the most interesting part of The Master, and he is one of my favorite kooky actors out there. Hugh Jackman was almost unsung (ha!) in Les Mis, but as the Beefy Padre said "Oh yeah? Well YOU do it." That guy did a very strong job with an unbelievably difficult character. Still.. Daniel Day Lewis gave a performance that, if you ask me, is a one-in-a-generation performance. Years from now people will still talk about that performance in that movie.

Best Picture
Should Win: Lincoln
Will Win: Argo

Comments: As I mentioned at the top, I truly believe that 7 of the 9 nominees are excellent enough that I wouldn't be mad if they won. Any one of those 7 would have easily been the top choice ahead of The Artist last year. (The 2 others being Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild, one of which just has no chance, and the other isn't really all that good respectively. ).

Still... When all is said and done, I say that the argument can truly only be made for 3 of these. Lincoln, Argo, and Django Unchained. In 30 years, these are the 3 that'll be debated as being "All timers". And if I'm being honest with myself I just have to go with Lincoln. It was affecting, beautifully acted, and tightly written. It was directed by a living legend, led by a performance by another living legend, and written by one of the great playwrights of our generation. It's as close to a no-brainer as I can think of, and yet...

I think Argo will win. It's got the momentum. It's a movie that gives a giant tip of the cap to the movie industry. It's exciting, smartly directed, and is just super in its own right. Do I think it should win? No. Will my feelings be hurt? No. It's awesome.

Now... Let's see how wrong I am tomorrow.

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